Today / SM San Juan vs Patronato

SM San Juan vs Patronato Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

SM San Juan

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Patronato

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-029.7%0-113.9%0-23.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.2%1-110.3%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.3%2-13.9%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.1%3-11.0%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% — — —

Draw 40.9% — — —

Away win 24.1% — — —

Over 2.5 24.5% — — —

Over 3.5 3.5% — — —

BTTS 30.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob30.5%

H 35% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 29.7%

#2 1–0 22.2%

#3 0–1 13.9%

#4 1–1✓ 10.3%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM San Juan0.7

Patronato0.5

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.5% · O3.5 PROB 3.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SM SAN JUAN · PPG 1.60

PATRONATO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

SM San Juan (H) 34.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 40.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Patronato (A) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SM San Juan face Patronato on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM San Juan a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Patronato 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for SM San Juan and 0.5 for Patronato (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 25% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM San Juan are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Patronato. This match finished 1-1.

SM San Juan vs Patronato Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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