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Avondale vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 05:00

Avondale

PPG 2.17 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Altona Magic

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.9%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.4%1-17.3%1-24.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.9%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-19.2%4+-25.2%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 50.2% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 57% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avondale2.5

Altona Magic1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AVONDALE · PPG 2.17

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=57.5%

Win probability 1X2

Avondale (H) 57.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Altona Magic (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Avondale face Altona Magic in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avondale a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Altona Magic 21%, so Avondale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Avondale and 1.1 for Altona Magic (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avondale are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.20 for Altona Magic. This match finished 5-1.

Avondale vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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