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Langwarrin vs Melbourne K. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 05:00

Langwarrin

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Melbourne K.

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.7%0-28.8%0-35.9%0-4+4.8%1 1-04.8%1-19.8%1-29.9%1-36.7%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.7%2-15.5%2-25.6%2-33.8%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.0%3-12.1%3-22.1%3-31.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 25.0% 4.00 -6.7%

Draw 24.5% 25.6% 3.90 -2.7%

Away win 53.3% 61.7% 1.62 -13.7%

Over 2.5 60.2% 69.4% 1.44 -13.3%

Over 3.5 38.6% 50.0% 2.00 -22.8%

BTTS 58.8% 69.4% 1.44 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.8%

A 53% / xG 1.1-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 1–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Langwarrin1.1

Melbourne K.2.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LANGWARRIN · PPG 1.40

MELBOURNE K. · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Langwarrin (H) 22.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.7%

Melbourne K. (A) 53.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Langwarrin face Melbourne K. in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Langwarrin a 22% chance, the draw 25% and Melbourne K. 53%, so Melbourne K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Langwarrin and 2.0 for Melbourne K. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Langwarrin are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Melbourne K.. This match finished 1-4.

Langwarrin vs Melbourne K. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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