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WS Wanderers B vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 05:00

WS Wanderers B

PPG 0.80 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-110.1%0-25.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.4%1-113.0%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.3%2-18.3%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.6%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 37.7% 2.65 +4.9%

Draw 29.0% 29.4% 3.40 -0.8%

Away win 31.4% 43.5% 2.30 -27.8%

Over 2.5 46.5% 61.7% 1.62 -24.7%

Over 3.5 22.5% 40.0% 2.50 -26.3%

BTTS 52.3% 67.6% 1.48 -22.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0✓ 8.9%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

WS Wanderers B1.3

Wollongong W.1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WS WANDERERS B · PPG 0.80

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

WS Wanderers B (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +4.9%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.8%

Wollongong W. (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

WS Wanderers B face Wollongong W. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives WS Wanderers B a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Wollongong W. 31%, so WS Wanderers B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for WS Wanderers B and 1.1 for Wollongong W. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, WS Wanderers B are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.86 for Wollongong W.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 0-0.

WS Wanderers B vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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