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Para Hills vs West Adelaide Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 05:30

Para Hills

PPG 0.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O3.5

West Adelaide

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+43.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-11.3%0-22.9%0-34.2%0-4+15.4%1 1-00.4%1-11.9%1-24.1%1-36.0%1-4+21.9%2 2-00.3%2-11.3%2-22.9%2-34.3%2-4+15.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.6%3-21.4%3-32.0%3-4+7.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.3% 16.7% 6.00 -15.7%

Draw 21.2% 20.0% 5.00 +3.6%

Away win 66.6% 75.2% 1.33 -11.4%

Over 2.5 78.8% 76.9% 1.30 +2.4%

Over 3.5 83.1% 57.8% 1.73 +43.8%

BTTS 63.0% 66.7% 1.50 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)4.4 BTTS prob63.0%

A 67% / xG 1.4-4.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–4 6.6%

#2 1–3 6.0%

#3 1–5 5.8%

#4 2–4 4.7%

#5 0–4 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Para Hills1.4

West Adelaide4.4

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 83.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PARA HILLS · PPG 0.25

WEST ADELAIDE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.25) vs Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Para Hills (H) 12.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -15.7%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.6%

West Adelaide (A) 66.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Para Hills face West Adelaide in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Para Hills a 12% chance, the draw 21% and West Adelaide 67%, so West Adelaide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Para Hills and 4.4 for West Adelaide (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-4. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Para Hills are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 0.75 for West Adelaide. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Para Hills vs West Adelaide Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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