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Cacereno vs Real Madrid B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 19:00

Cacereno

PPG 1.06 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Madrid B

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-112.3%0-28.1%0-33.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.2%2-16.8%2-24.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.4%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 37.7% 2.65 -10.7%

Draw 27.5% 31.3% 3.20 -7.2%

Away win 38.9% 40.8% 2.45 -4.7%

Over 2.5 46.5% 48.8% 2.05 -4.7%

Over 3.5 21.5% 27.0% 3.70 -12.3%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

A 39% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cacereno1.1

Real Madrid B1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CACERENO · PPG 1.06

REAL MADRID B · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

Cacereno (H) 33.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -10.7%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.2%

Real Madrid B (A) 38.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cacereno face Real Madrid B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cacereno a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Real Madrid B 39%, so Real Madrid B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cacereno and 1.3 for Real Madrid B (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cacereno are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.12 for Real Madrid B. This match finished 4-1.

Cacereno vs Real Madrid B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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