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Tecnico U. vs Delfin Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:30

Tecnico U.

PPG 0.80 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Delfin

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-036.3%0-117.7%0-24.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.1%1-19.3%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-05.0%2-12.4%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.9%3-10.4%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 51.0% 1.96 -40.0%

Draw 43.7% 32.8% 3.05 +33.3%

Away win 25.7% 23.3% 4.30 +6.3%

Over 2.5 23.8% 37.0% 2.70 -21.4%

Over 3.5 2.0% 18.2% 5.50 -53.4%

BTTS 29.3% 44.4% 2.25 -20.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob29.3%

D 44% / xG 0.5-0.5 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 36.3%

#2 1–0 19.1%

#3 0–1 17.7%

#4 1–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tecnico U.0.5

Delfin0.5

COMBINED 1.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.8% · O3.5 PROB 2.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TECNICO U. · PPG 0.80

DELFIN · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.80) > Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Tecnico U. (H) 30.6%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -40.0%

Draw 43.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +33.3%

Delfin (A) 25.7%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tecnico U. face Delfin in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tecnico U. a 31% chance, the draw 44% and Delfin 26%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Tecnico U. and 0.5 for Delfin (1.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tecnico U. are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.40 for Delfin. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +33.3%. This match finished 4-0.

Tecnico U. vs Delfin Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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