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Flandria vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:30

Flandria

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-115.7%0-29.5%0-33.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.8%1-113.1%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.5%2-15.4%2-23.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.3%3-11.5%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 38.5% 2.60 -17.3%

Draw 29.5% 36.4% 2.75 -11.3%

Away win 43.1% 35.1% 2.85 +22.8%

Over 2.5 45.8% 33.9% 2.95 +35.1%

Over 3.5 15.0% 16.7% 6.00 -6.0%

BTTS 48.2% 44.4% 2.25 +8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.2%

A 43% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 15.7%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–0 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flandria0.8

Deportivo Merlo1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FLANDRIA · PPG 1.17

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

48%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.17) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Flandria (H) 27.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -17.3%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.3%

Deportivo Merlo (A) 43.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flandria face Deportivo Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flandria a 27% chance, the draw 30% and Deportivo Merlo 43%, so Deportivo Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Flandria and 1.2 for Deportivo Merlo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flandria are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.50 for Deportivo Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Flandria vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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