Today / Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana / D. Laferrere vs SM Burzaco

D. Laferrere vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:30

D. Laferrere

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

SM Burzaco

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-117.4%0-28.6%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-013.2%1-113.0%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.9%2-14.9%2-22.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.2%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 44.4% 2.25 -23.2%

Draw 35.6% 33.3% 3.00 +6.8%

Away win 37.0% 32.3% 3.10 +14.7%

Over 2.5 35.1% 38.5% 2.60 -8.7%

Over 3.5 10.0% 23.1% 4.33 -34.0%

BTTS 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.9%

D 36% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.5%

#2 0–1 17.4%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 13.2%

#5 0–2✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Laferrere0.8

SM Burzaco1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.0%

Form & verdict PPG

D. LAFERRERE · PPG 1.33

SM BURZACO · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

46%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

D. Laferrere (H) 27.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.2%

Draw 35.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +6.8%

SM Burzaco (A) 37.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Laferrere face SM Burzaco in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Laferrere a 27% chance, the draw 36% and SM Burzaco 37%, so SM Burzaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for D. Laferrere and 1.0 for SM Burzaco (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Laferrere are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.60 for SM Burzaco. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 0-2.

D. Laferrere vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Predictions