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D. Laferrere vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:30

D. Laferrere

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

SM Burzaco

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-117.4%0-28.6%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-013.2%1-113.0%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.9%2-14.9%2-22.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.2%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 44.4% 2.25 -23.2%

Draw 35.6% 33.3% 3.00 +6.8%

Away win 37.0% 32.3% 3.10 +14.7%

Over 2.5 35.1% 38.5% 2.60 -8.7%

Over 3.5 10.0% 23.1% 4.33 -34.0%

BTTS 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.9%

D 36% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.5%

#2 0–1 17.4%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 13.2%

#5 0–2✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Laferrere0.8

SM Burzaco1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.0%

Form & verdict PPG

D. LAFERRERE · PPG 1.33

SM BURZACO · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

D. Laferrere (H) 27.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.2%

Draw 35.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +6.8%

SM Burzaco (A) 37.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Laferrere face SM Burzaco in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Laferrere a 27% chance, the draw 36% and SM Burzaco 37%, so SM Burzaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for D. Laferrere and 1.0 for SM Burzaco (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Laferrere are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.60 for SM Burzaco. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 0-2.

D. Laferrere vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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