Today / Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana / Argentino Merlo vs Liniers

Argentino Merlo vs Liniers Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:30

Argentino Merlo

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Liniers

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.4%0-115.1%0-24.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.6%1-111.0%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.5%2-14.0%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.8%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 52.4% 1.91 -33.3%

Draw 41.0% 33.9% 2.95 +20.9%

Away win 24.2% 24.4% 4.10 -0.5%

Over 2.5 25.8% 37.0% 2.70 -18.2%

Over 3.5 3.9% 18.2% 5.50 -47.1%

BTTS 41.7% 45.5% 2.20 -8.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.7%

H 35% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.4%

#2 1–0 20.6%

#3 0–1✓ 15.1%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Merlo0.7

Liniers0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 3.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO MERLO · PPG 1.33

LINIERS · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Merlo (H) 34.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -33.3%

Draw 41.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +20.9%

Liniers (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Merlo face Liniers in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Merlo a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Liniers 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Argentino Merlo and 0.5 for Liniers (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Merlo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Liniers. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Argentino Merlo vs Liniers Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Predictions