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Brown de A. vs S. Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Brown de A.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

S. Italiano

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-120.1%0-211.7%0-34.5%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.3%1-111.9%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-03.0%2-13.5%2-22.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.6%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% 33.3% 3.00 -17.2%

Draw 31.2% 37.0% 2.70 -15.8%

Away win 45.0% 40.0% 2.50 +12.5%

Over 2.5 35.1% 34.5% 2.90 +1.8%

Over 3.5 10.1% 22.2% 4.50 -32.7%

BTTS 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob45.9%

A 45% / xG 0.6-1.2 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 17.4%

#2 0–1 20.1%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 0–2 11.7%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brown de A.0.6

S. Italiano1.2

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BROWN DE A. · PPG 1.00

S. ITALIANO · PPG 1.67

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Brown de A. (H) 23.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.2%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.8%

S. Italiano (A) 45.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brown de A. face S. Italiano in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brown de A. a 24% chance, the draw 31% and S. Italiano 45%, so S. Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Brown de A. and 1.2 for S. Italiano (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brown de A. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.67 for S. Italiano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Brown de A. vs S. Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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