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Meppen vs Weiche F. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Meppen

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Weiche F.

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 88.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.8%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.2%1-13.0%1-22.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.3%2-15.7%2-23.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-17.2%3-24.8%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-014.0%4+-118.6%4+-212.4%4+-35.5%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.2% 76.9% 1.30 +5.6%

Draw 10.3% 20.0% 5.00 -48.5%

Away win 8.5% 13.2% 7.60 -35.4%

Over 2.5 88.7% 75.2% 1.33 +18.0%

Over 3.5 75.4% 55.6% 1.80 +35.7%

BTTS 71.9% 66.7% 1.50 +7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 88%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob71.9%

H 81% / xG 3.8-1.3 / O2.5 89% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.2%

#2 4–1 6.8%

#3 2–1✓ 5.7%

#4 3–0 5.4%

#5 5–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meppen3.8

Weiche F.1.3

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 88.7% · O3.5 PROB 75.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MEPPEN · PPG 2.50

WEICHE F. · PPG 1.29

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away AVERAGE (1.29) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Meppen (H) 81.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV +5.6%

Draw 10.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -48.5%

Weiche F. (A) 8.5%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV -35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meppen face Weiche F. in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meppen a 81% chance, the draw 10% and Weiche F. 9%, so Meppen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Meppen and 1.3 for Weiche F. (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 89% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meppen are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.29 for Weiche F.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Meppen vs Weiche F. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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