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Partizan vs OFK Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:30

Partizan

PPG 2.24 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

OFK Beograd

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.3%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.7%1-111.0%1-26.3%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.0%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 65.4% 1.53 -24.6%

Draw 25.6% 24.4% 4.10 +3.0%

Away win 25.1% 19.2% 5.20 +18.3%

Over 2.5 59.3% 66.7% 1.50 -11.1%

Over 3.5 33.0% 45.5% 2.20 -27.4%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Partizan1.8

OFK Beograd1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PARTIZAN · PPG 2.24

OFK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.24) > Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Partizan (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -24.6%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.0%

OFK Beograd (A) 25.1%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Partizan face OFK Beograd in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Partizan a 49% chance, the draw 26% and OFK Beograd 25%, so Partizan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Partizan and 1.1 for OFK Beograd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Partizan are averaging 2.24 points per game versus 1.71 for OFK Beograd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Partizan vs OFK Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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