Today / Paris 13 A. vs Aubagne

Paris 13 A. vs Aubagne Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Paris 13 A.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aubagne

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-112.7%0-26.8%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.7%1-113.5%1-27.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.7%2-17.1%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.4%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 35.5% — — —

Over 2.5 45.8% — — —

Over 3.5 16.6% — — —

BTTS 50.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.9%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 0–1 12.7%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paris 13 A.1.1

Aubagne1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PARIS 13 A. · PPG 1.33

AUBAGNE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Paris 13 A. (H) 36.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aubagne (A) 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Paris 13 A. face Aubagne on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paris 13 A. a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Aubagne 36%, so Paris 13 A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Paris 13 A. and 1.1 for Aubagne (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paris 13 A. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Aubagne. This match finished 1-1.

Paris 13 A. vs Aubagne Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions