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Unionistas vs Tenerife Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:30

Unionistas

PPG 1.76 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Tenerife

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-116.5%0-210.4%0-34.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.8%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.9%2-14.9%2-23.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.0%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% 37.0% 2.70 -19.3%

Draw 30.4% 33.9% 2.95 -10.3%

Away win 44.5% 39.2% 2.55 +13.5%

Over 2.5 45.8% 43.5% 2.30 +5.3%

Over 3.5 14.8% 23.1% 4.33 -21.6%

BTTS 48.2% 52.6% 1.90 -8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.2%

A 44% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.1%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–1 16.5%

#4 0–2 10.4%

#5 1–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unionistas0.8

Tenerife1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIONISTAS · PPG 1.76

TENERIFE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.76), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Unionistas (H) 25.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -19.3%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -10.3%

Tenerife (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Unionistas face Tenerife in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unionistas a 25% chance, the draw 30% and Tenerife 45%, so Tenerife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Unionistas and 1.3 for Tenerife (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unionistas are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 2.00 for Tenerife. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Unionistas vs Tenerife Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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