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Ponferradina vs Real Aviles Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:30

Ponferradina

PPG 1.59 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Aviles

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.1%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.6%1-112.2%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.3%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.5%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 55.6% 1.80 -14.1%

Draw 26.6% 29.9% 3.35 -6.5%

Away win 25.7% 24.4% 4.10 +3.2%

Over 2.5 48.7% 51.3% 1.95 -5.0%

Over 3.5 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -7.6%

BTTS 53.7% 55.6% 1.80 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.7%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponferradina1.5

Real Aviles1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PONFERRADINA · PPG 1.59

REAL AVILES · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Ponferradina (H) 47.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -14.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.5%

Real Aviles (A) 25.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponferradina face Real Aviles in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponferradina a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Real Aviles 26%, so Ponferradina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ponferradina and 1.1 for Real Aviles (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponferradina are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.29 for Real Aviles. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Ponferradina vs Real Aviles Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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