Today / Red Star vs Novi Pazar

Red Star vs Novi Pazar Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Red Star

PPG 2.71 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Novi Pazar

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.4%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.2%1-19.3%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-16.9%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-15.9%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 20.6% — — —

Over 2.5 59.3% — — —

Over 3.5 33.8% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 54% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Red Star2.1

Novi Pazar0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RED STAR · PPG 2.71

NOVI PAZAR · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs P(Home)=54.4%

Win probability 1X2

Red Star (H) 54.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Novi Pazar (A) 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Red Star face Novi Pazar on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Red Star a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Novi Pazar 21%, so Red Star are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Red Star and 0.8 for Novi Pazar (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Red Star are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.18 for Novi Pazar. This match finished 1-2.

Red Star vs Novi Pazar Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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