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Z. Pancevo vs R. Surdulica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group - 35 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:30

Z. Pancevo

PPG 2.12 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

R. Surdulica

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-19.3%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.5%1-112.6%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-18.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.8%3-13.9%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 51.5% 1.94 -7.1%

Draw 27.4% 30.8% 3.25 -6.6%

Away win 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

Over 2.5 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Over 3.5 17.5% 27.8% 3.60 -22.2%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 15.5%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Z. Pancevo1.4

R. Surdulica0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

Z. PANCEVO · PPG 2.12

R. SURDULICA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.12) vs P(Home)=47.9%

Win probability 1X2

Z. Pancevo (H) 47.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -7.1%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.6%

R. Surdulica (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Z. Pancevo face R. Surdulica in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Z. Pancevo a 48% chance, the draw 27% and R. Surdulica 25%, so Z. Pancevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Z. Pancevo and 0.8 for R. Surdulica (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Z. Pancevo are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.94 for R. Surdulica. This match finished 1-1.

Z. Pancevo vs R. Surdulica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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