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Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:00

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.69 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Metalist 1925

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-116.1%0-28.3%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-013.0%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.4%2-15.5%2-22.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.5%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 29.4% 3.40 +0.2%

Draw 34.4% 32.3% 3.10 +6.6%

Away win 36.1% 47.6% 2.10 -24.2%

Over 2.5 35.1% 43.5% 2.30 -19.3%

Over 3.5 11.7% 23.1% 4.33 -29.6%

BTTS 48.2% 51.8% 1.93 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.2%

D 34% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 1–1✓ 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 1–0 13.0%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zorya Luhansk0.8

Metalist 19251.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 11.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.69

METALIST 1925 · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Zorya Luhansk (H) 29.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +0.2%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +6.6%

Metalist 1925 (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zorya Luhansk face Metalist 1925 in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zorya Luhansk a 30% chance, the draw 34% and Metalist 1925 36%, so Metalist 1925 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Zorya Luhansk and 1.0 for Metalist 1925 (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.62 for Metalist 1925. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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