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Obolon vs Episentr Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:00

Obolon

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Episentr

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-111.9%0-27.5%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.4%1-113.1%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.7%2-17.2%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.1%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 33.9% 2.95 +5.3%

Draw 28.2% 37.0% 2.70 -14.3%

Away win 36.0% 39.2% 2.55 -8.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 44.4% 2.25 +4.6%

Over 3.5 21.4% 25.0% 4.00 -8.6%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Obolon1.1

Episentr1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

OBOLON · PPG 1.00

EPISENTR · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Obolon (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +5.3%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.3%

Episentr (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Obolon face Episentr in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Obolon a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Episentr 36%, so Episentr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Obolon and 1.3 for Episentr (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Obolon are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.08 for Episentr. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Obolon vs Episentr Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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