Today / MTK Hungaria W vs Ujpest W

MTK Hungaria W vs Ujpest W Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

MTK Hungaria W
PPG 2.20 · HOME
0 – 1
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME
Ujpest W
PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.0%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.7%1-15.8%1-22.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.4%2-18.5%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.2%3-18.2%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-012.2%4+-112.3%4+-26.2%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.7%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 63.3%
Draw 21.3%
Away win 15.4%
Over 2.5 61.7%
Over 3.5 55.3%
BTTS 58.8%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-1
xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.8%

H 63% / xG 2.9-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%
#2 2–0 8.4%
#3 3–1 8.2%
#4 3–0 8.2%
#5 1–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MTK Hungaria W2.9
Ujpest W1.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 55.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MTK HUNGARIA W · PPG 2.20

UJPEST W · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

MTK Hungaria W (H) 63.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 21.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Ujpest W (A) 15.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

MTK Hungaria W face Ujpest W on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MTK Hungaria W a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Ujpest W 15%, so MTK Hungaria W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for MTK Hungaria W and 1.0 for Ujpest W (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MTK Hungaria W are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.50 for Ujpest W. This match finished 0-1.

PredictVantage

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