Today / H. Kralove U19 vs Sparta P. U19

H. Kralove U19 vs Sparta P. U19 Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

H. Kralove U19

PPG 2.17 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sparta P. U19

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.9%0-21.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.6%1-15.5%1-24.2%1-32.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.1%2-17.8%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.4%3-25.6%3-32.9%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-110.5%4+-28.0%4+-34.1%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 23.1% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 63.4% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.0%

H 54% / xG 2.8-1.5 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

H. Kralove U192.8

Sparta P. U191.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.4%

Form & verdict PPG

H. KRALOVE U19 · PPG 2.17

SPARTA P. U19 · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

H. Kralove U19 (H) 54.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sparta P. U19 (A) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

H. Kralove U19 face Sparta P. U19 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives H. Kralove U19 a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Sparta P. U19 23%, so H. Kralove U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for H. Kralove U19 and 1.5 for Sparta P. U19 (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, H. Kralove U19 are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.50 for Sparta P. U19. This match finished 0-1.

H. Kralove U19 vs Sparta P. U19 Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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