Today / Celik vs TOSK Tesanj

Celik vs TOSK Tesanj Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Celik

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

TOSK Tesanj

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.1%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-110.9%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.3%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.7%3-15.8%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 22.6% — — —

Over 2.5 52.8% — — —

Over 3.5 27.7% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celik1.8

TOSK Tesanj0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CELIK · PPG 2.40

TOSK TESANJ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Celik (H) 51.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TOSK Tesanj (A) 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Celik face TOSK Tesanj on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celik a 51% chance, the draw 26% and TOSK Tesanj 23%, so Celik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Celik and 0.9 for TOSK Tesanj (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celik are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.00 for TOSK Tesanj.

Celik vs TOSK Tesanj Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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