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Muang Thong Utd vs N. Ratchasima Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Muang Thong Utd

PPG 1.15 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

N. Ratchasima

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-17.9%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.2%1-111.8%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.8%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.4%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 62.5% 1.60 -11.4%

Draw 26.3% 27.8% 3.60 -5.3%

Away win 18.3% 22.2% 4.50 -17.6%

Over 2.5 38.3% — — —

Over 3.5 18.5% — — —

BTTS 40.2% 57.8% 1.73 -30.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob40.2%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 0–0 10.9%

#5 2–1✓ 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Muang Thong Utd1.5

N. Ratchasima0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MUANG THONG UTD · PPG 1.15

N. RATCHASIMA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.15) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Muang Thong Utd (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -11.4%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.3%

N. Ratchasima (A) 18.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Muang Thong Utd face N. Ratchasima in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Muang Thong Utd a 55% chance, the draw 26% and N. Ratchasima 18%, so Muang Thong Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Muang Thong Utd and 0.7 for N. Ratchasima (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Muang Thong Utd are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.67 for N. Ratchasima. This match finished 2-1.

Muang Thong Utd vs N. Ratchasima Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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