Muang Thong Utd vs N. Ratchasima Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Thailand - Thai League 1 Regular Season - 20 Thunderdome Stadium· Nonthaburi Saturday, April 18, 2026 11:30

Muang Thong Utd PPG 1.15

2-1 HIT CS5

N. Ratchasima PPG 0.67

Draw· -5.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Muang Thong Utd face N. Ratchasima in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Muang Thong Utd a 55% chance, the draw 26% and N. Ratchasima 18%, so Muang Thong Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Muang Thong Utd and 0.7 for N. Ratchasima (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Muang Thong Utd are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.67 for N. Ratchasima. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 55.4%

Odds: 1.60 EV: -11.4%

Draw 26.3%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -5.3%

Away 18.3%

Odds: 4.50 EV: -17.6%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.3% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 18.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 40.2% Odds: 1.73 -30.4%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Muang Thong Utd

1.49

N. Ratchasima

0.73

Model SuggestionHome -11.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -11.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.15) > Away POOR (0.67)