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Dornbirn vs Kufstein Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 28 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:00

Dornbirn

PPG 2.31 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kufstein

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.2%1-18.2%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-17.4%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-17.4%4+-23.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.3% 82.0% 1.22 -28.9%

Draw 22.9% 18.2% 5.50 +15.6%

Away win 18.9% 11.1% 9.00 +42.1%

Over 2.5 60.2% 71.4% 1.40 -15.7%

Over 3.5 38.2% 50.5% 1.98 -24.4%

BTTS 52.3% 56.2% 1.78 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 58% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 9.1%

#5 1–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dornbirn2.3

Kufstein0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DORNBIRN · PPG 2.31

KUFSTEIN · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=58.3%

Win probability 1X2

Dornbirn (H) 58.3%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -28.9%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +15.6%

Kufstein (A) 18.9%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +42.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dornbirn face Kufstein in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dornbirn a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Kufstein 19%, so Dornbirn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Dornbirn and 0.8 for Kufstein (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dornbirn are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 0.50 for Kufstein. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.1%. This match finished 3-3.

Dornbirn vs Kufstein Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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