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Pyunik vs BKMA Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:00

Pyunik

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

BKMA

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.1%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-110.6%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-15.3%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-13.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 78.1% 1.28 -34.3%

Draw 26.6% 20.8% 4.80 +16.6%

Away win 22.1% 11.6% 8.60 +54.0%

Over 2.5 46.5% 60.6% 1.65 -23.3%

Over 3.5 22.6% 38.5% 2.60 -24.7%

BTTS 48.2% 50.0% 2.00 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 51% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 2–0✓ 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pyunik1.7

BKMA0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PYUNIK · PPG 2.40

BKMA · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=51.3%

Win probability 1X2

Pyunik (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -34.3%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +16.6%

BKMA (A) 22.1%

ODDS 8.60 · IMPLIED 11.6% EV +54.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pyunik face BKMA in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pyunik a 51% chance, the draw 27% and BKMA 22%, so Pyunik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pyunik and 0.7 for BKMA (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pyunik are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.82 for BKMA. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Pyunik vs BKMA Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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