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Sporting CP B vs FC Porto B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:30

Sporting CP B

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Porto B

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-19.0%0-24.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.5%1-112.6%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.9%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.2%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 52.1% 1.92 -9.2%

Draw 27.2% 28.2% 3.55 -2.1%

Away win 25.5% 28.6% 3.50 -6.5%

Over 2.5 46.5% 57.1% 1.75 -18.6%

Over 3.5 21.0% 34.5% 2.90 -23.5%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP B1.4

FC Porto B0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP B · PPG 1.31

FC PORTO B · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP B (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -9.2%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.1%

FC Porto B (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP B face FC Porto B in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP B a 47% chance, the draw 27% and FC Porto B 26%, so Sporting CP B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sporting CP B and 0.9 for FC Porto B (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP B are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.00 for FC Porto B. This match finished 0-1.

Sporting CP B vs FC Porto B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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