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Portugal - Segunda Liga
Regular Season - 33
Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril· Penafiel
Saturday, May 9, 2026
14:30
Penafiel
PPG 1.44
1-0
HIT CS5
Maritimo
PPG 2.19
Away· +12.5%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
26.6%
Odds: 2.58
EV: -18.8%
Draw
29.8%
Odds: 3.20
EV: -2.8%
Away
43.6%
Odds: 2.58
EV: +12.5%
Result: Home ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
36.5%
Odds: 2.10
-23.4%
Over 3.5
14.0%
Odds: 3.85
-27.7%
BTTS
48.2%
Odds: 1.80
-13.2%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
0-0
✘
2nd
1-1
✘
3rd
0-1
✘
4th
0-2
✘
5th
1-0
✔
Expected Goals (xG)
Penafiel
0.77
Maritimo
1.21
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
League Track Record
↗
Based on 42 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
48%
O2.5/Under
45%
BTTS/No
38%
Score Hit
41%
ROI
-45.7%
Bet Hit
30%
(10 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity
66%
UPSET_VALUE
Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home AVERAGE (1.44)