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Penafiel vs Maritimo Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:30

Penafiel

PPG 1.44 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Maritimo

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-116.7%0-210.1%0-34.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.9%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.1%2-15.0%2-23.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.1%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.6% 38.8% 2.58 -18.8%

Draw 29.8% 31.3% 3.20 -2.8%

Away win 43.6% 38.8% 2.58 +12.5%

Over 2.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

Over 3.5 14.0% 26.0% 3.85 -27.7%

BTTS 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.2%

A 44% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–1 16.7%

#4 0–2 10.1%

#5 1–0✓ 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penafiel0.8

Maritimo1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 14.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PENAFIEL · PPG 1.44

MARITIMO · PPG 2.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Penafiel (H) 26.6%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -18.8%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.8%

Maritimo (A) 43.6%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penafiel face Maritimo in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penafiel a 27% chance, the draw 30% and Maritimo 44%, so Maritimo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Penafiel and 1.2 for Maritimo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penafiel are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.19 for Maritimo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Penafiel vs Maritimo Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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