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Felgueiras vs Portimonense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:30

Felgueiras

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Portimonense

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-111.9%0-25.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.4%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-17.6%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 51.5% 1.94 -20.6%

Draw 30.9% 30.3% 3.30 +2.0%

Away win 28.2% 27.4% 3.65 +1.8%

Over 2.5 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Over 3.5 15.3% 28.2% 3.55 -27.4%

BTTS 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Felgueiras1.1

Portimonense0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FELGUEIRAS · PPG 1.50

PORTIMONENSE · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Felgueiras (H) 40.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -20.6%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +2.0%

Portimonense (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Felgueiras face Portimonense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Felgueiras a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Portimonense 28%, so Felgueiras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Felgueiras and 0.9 for Portimonense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Felgueiras are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.19 for Portimonense. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Felgueiras vs Portimonense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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