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Feirense vs Oliveirense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:30

Feirense

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Oliveirense

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.4%0-111.3%0-23.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-112.7%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.2%2-17.1%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.8%3-12.6%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 50.8% 1.97 -15.9%

Draw 32.0% 30.8% 3.25 +4.0%

Away win 25.3% 27.8% 3.60 -5.3%

Over 2.5 35.1% 47.6% 2.10 -26.3%

Over 3.5 11.0% 27.0% 3.70 -35.6%

BTTS 45.9% 54.6% 1.83 -16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.4%

#2 1–0 18.3%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 0–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Feirense1.1

Oliveirense0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 11.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FEIRENSE · PPG 1.50

OLIVEIRENSE · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=42.7%

Win probability 1X2

Feirense (H) 42.7%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -15.9%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +4.0%

Oliveirense (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Feirense face Oliveirense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Feirense a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Oliveirense 25%, so Feirense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Feirense and 0.7 for Oliveirense (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Feirense are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.56 for Oliveirense. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Feirense vs Oliveirense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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