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Farense vs Pacos Ferreira Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:30

Farense

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Pacos Ferreira

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-112.0%0-24.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.5%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.0%2-17.2%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.3%3-12.6%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 52.4% 1.91 -17.7%

Draw 31.3% 30.3% 3.30 +3.3%

Away win 25.6% 26.3% 3.80 -1.6%

Over 2.5 35.1% 48.8% 2.05 -28.1%

Over 3.5 12.5% 27.4% 3.65 -32.6%

BTTS 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 1–1✓ 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.5%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farense1.1

Pacos Ferreira0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FARENSE · PPG 1.00

PACOS FERREIRA · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Farense (H) 43.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -17.7%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +3.3%

Pacos Ferreira (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farense face Pacos Ferreira in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farense a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Pacos Ferreira 26%, so Farense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Farense and 0.8 for Pacos Ferreira (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farense are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.81 for Pacos Ferreira. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Farense vs Pacos Ferreira Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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