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Pontevedra vs Athletic B. B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:15

Pontevedra

PPG 1.65 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Athletic B. B

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-110.2%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-112.4%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.1%2-17.6%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-13.1%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 52.4% 1.91 -9.7%

Draw 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

Away win 24.5% 25.3% 3.95 -1.9%

Over 2.5 35.1% 45.5% 2.20 -22.8%

Over 3.5 12.5% 23.8% 4.20 -28.5%

BTTS 47.2% 51.8% 1.93 -8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 1–0 18.3%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pontevedra1.2

Athletic B. B0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTEVEDRA · PPG 1.65

ATHLETIC B. B · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.65) > Away AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

Pontevedra (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -9.7%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.7%

Athletic B. B (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pontevedra face Athletic B. B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pontevedra a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Athletic B. B 25%, so Pontevedra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Pontevedra and 0.7 for Athletic B. B (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pontevedra are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.12 for Athletic B. B. This match finished 4-0.

Pontevedra vs Athletic B. B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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