Today / BFA Vilnius vs Garliava

BFA Vilnius vs Garliava Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

BFA Vilnius

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Garliava

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=35.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-113.2%0-27.2%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.3%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.3%2-16.9%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.1%3-12.3%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 35.9% — — —

Over 2.5 45.8% — — —

Over 3.5 16.5% — — —

BTTS 50.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.9%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 1–2✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFA Vilnius1.0

Garliava1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BFA VILNIUS · PPG 2.33

GARLIAVA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=35.6%

Win probability 1X2

BFA Vilnius (H) 35.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Garliava (A) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BFA Vilnius face Garliava on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFA Vilnius a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Garliava 36%, so Garliava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for BFA Vilnius and 1.1 for Garliava (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFA Vilnius are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Garliava. This match finished 1-2.

BFA Vilnius vs Garliava Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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