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Vaprus vs Narva Trans Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Vaprus

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Narva Trans

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.1%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.7%1-17.6%1-24.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.3%2-19.4%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.8%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-18.7%4+-24.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 46.5% 2.15 +20.4%

Draw 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

Away win 21.2% 33.3% 3.00 -21.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 58.8% 1.70 +4.9%

Over 3.5 48.7% 36.4% 2.75 +33.9%

BTTS 58.8% 63.7% 1.57 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 2–0✓ 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaprus2.5

Narva Trans1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VAPRUS · PPG 1.00

NARVA TRANS · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Vaprus (H) 56.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +20.4%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.2%

Narva Trans (A) 21.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaprus face Narva Trans in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaprus a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Narva Trans 21%, so Vaprus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Vaprus and 1.1 for Narva Trans (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaprus are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Narva Trans. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Vaprus vs Narva Trans Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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