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Kerala Blasters vs Jamshedpur Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Kerala Blasters

PPG 0.20 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Jamshedpur

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+16.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-121.1%0-212.5%0-34.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.6%1-111.4%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-02.6%2-13.1%2-21.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.5%3-10.6%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.9% 33.9% 2.95 -50.1%

Draw 31.2% 32.3% 3.10 -3.3%

Away win 51.9% 44.4% 2.25 +16.8%

Over 2.5 24.9% 48.8% 2.05 -49.0%

Over 3.5 9.7% 27.4% 3.65 -64.6%

BTTS 29.0% 56.5% 1.77 -48.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob29.0%

A 52% / xG 0.5-1.2 / U2.5 25% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 21.1%

#2 0–0 17.8%

#3 0–2 12.5%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerala Blasters0.5

Jamshedpur1.2

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.9% · O3.5 PROB 9.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KERALA BLASTERS · PPG 0.20

JAMSHEDPUR · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Kerala Blasters (H) 16.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -50.1%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.3%

Jamshedpur (A) 51.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerala Blasters face Jamshedpur in India - Indian Super League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerala Blasters a 17% chance, the draw 31% and Jamshedpur 52%, so Jamshedpur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Kerala Blasters and 1.2 for Jamshedpur (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 25% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerala Blasters are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 1.33 for Jamshedpur. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Kerala Blasters vs Jamshedpur Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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