Today / Brighton vs Wolverhampton

Brighton vs Wolverhampton Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Brighton

PPG 1.76 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Wolverhampton

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.76) vs P(Home)=53.5%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-15.3%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.5%1-19.8%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.8%3-15.5%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-13.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% — — —

Draw 26.5% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 23.7% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.2%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.3%

#2 1–0 15.5%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brighton1.8

Wolverhampton0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BRIGHTON · PPG 1.76

WOLVERHAMPTON · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.76) vs P(Home)=53.5%

Win probability 1X2

Brighton (H) 53.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Wolverhampton (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Brighton face Wolverhampton on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brighton a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Wolverhampton 20%, so Brighton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Brighton and 0.6 for Wolverhampton (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brighton are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 0.29 for Wolverhampton. This match finished 3-0.

Brighton vs Wolverhampton Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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