Today / AFC vs E. Maassluis

AFC vs E. Maassluis Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

AFC

PPG 1.47 · HOME

UPCOMING

E. Maassluis

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.3%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.8%1-111.1%1-26.3%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 59.1% — — —

Over 3.5 32.6% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC1.8

E. Maassluis1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC · PPG 1.47

E. MAASSLUIS · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.47) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

AFC (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

E. Maassluis (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC face E. Maassluis on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC a 49% chance, the draw 26% and E. Maassluis 25%, so AFC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for AFC and 1.1 for E. Maassluis (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.47 for E. Maassluis.

AFC vs E. Maassluis Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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