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Barakaldo vs Merida Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Barakaldo

PPG 2.18 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Merida

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.0%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-112.1%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 61.7% 1.62 -20.5%

Draw 26.2% 28.2% 3.55 -4.2%

Away win 24.7% 19.6% 5.10 +15.6%

Over 2.5 46.5% 51.8% 1.93 -10.3%

Over 3.5 21.0% 30.8% 3.25 -19.1%

BTTS 51.0% 54.1% 1.85 -5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.0%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0✓ 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barakaldo1.5

Merida0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BARAKALDO · PPG 2.18

MERIDA · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.18) vs P(Home)=49.1%

Win probability 1X2

Barakaldo (H) 49.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -20.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.2%

Merida (A) 24.7%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barakaldo face Merida in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barakaldo a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Merida 25%, so Barakaldo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Barakaldo and 0.8 for Merida (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barakaldo are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 0.82 for Merida. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Barakaldo vs Merida Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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