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Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Saturday, May 9, 2026 12:00 
Barakaldo PPG 2.18 
Merida PPG 0.82
Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Saturday, May 9, 2026 12:00 Barakaldo PPG 2.182-0 HIT CS4
Merida PPG 0.82Away· +15.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 46.5% Odds: 1.93 -10.3%
Over 3.5 21.0% Odds: 3.25 -19.1%
BTTS 51.0% Odds: 1.85 -5.7%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 1-0 ✘
3rd 0-0 ✘
4th 2-0 ✔
5th 2-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Barakaldo 1.51
Merida 0.83
Model Suggestion
BTTS -5.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -5.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+15.6%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+15.6%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.18) vs P(Home)=49.1%