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Atmosfera vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Atmosfera

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Babrungas

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 34.5% — a clear edge.

+91.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-111.8%0-214.3%0-311.5%0-4+12.3%1 1-02.9%1-17.1%1-28.6%1-36.9%1-4+7.4%2 2-00.9%2-12.1%2-22.6%2-32.1%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.2%3-10.4%3-20.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.2% 47.2% 2.12 -44.5%

Draw 21.7% 29.9% 3.35 -16.4%

Away win 66.1% 34.5% 2.90 +91.7%

Over 2.5 59.3% 61.7% 1.62 -3.9%

Over 3.5 35.7% 39.2% 2.55 -9.0%

BTTS 48.2% 64.9% 1.54 -25.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob48.2%

A 66% / xG 0.6-2.4 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.3%

#2 0–3 11.5%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 1–1✓ 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atmosfera0.6

Babrungas2.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATMOSFERA · PPG 0.75

BABRUNGAS · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Atmosfera (H) 12.2%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -44.5%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -16.4%

Babrungas (A) 66.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +91.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atmosfera face Babrungas in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atmosfera a 12% chance, the draw 22% and Babrungas 66%, so Babrungas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Atmosfera and 2.4 for Babrungas (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atmosfera are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 3.00 for Babrungas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +91.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Atmosfera vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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