Today / Giessen vs Marburg

Giessen vs Marburg Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Giessen

PPG 2.21 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Marburg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.3%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.9%1-16.2%1-24.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.8%2-18.6%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.2%3-17.9%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-110.6%4+-26.8%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 57.2% — — —

BTTS 60.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.6%

H 58% / xG 2.8-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.2%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Giessen2.8

Marburg1.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 57.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GIESSEN · PPG 2.21

MARBURG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

Giessen (H) 58.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Marburg (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Giessen face Marburg on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Giessen a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Marburg 21%, so Giessen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Giessen and 1.3 for Marburg (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Giessen are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.00 for Marburg. This match finished 0-5.

Giessen vs Marburg Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions