Today / Oberhausen vs Mgladbach B

Oberhausen vs Mgladbach B Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Oberhausen
PPG 1.81 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Mgladbach B
PPG 2.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.6%0-25.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.8%1-111.4%1-28.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.5%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.9%3-14.2%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 37.3%
Draw 26.3%
Away win 36.4%
Over 2.5 59.3%
Over 3.5 34.1%
BTTS 58.8%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

H 37% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%
#2 2–1 8.5%
#3 1–2 8.3%
#4 0–0 5.2%
#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oberhausen1.5
Mgladbach B1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OBERHAUSEN · PPG 1.81

MGLADBACH B · PPG 2.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.81), Away EXCELLENT (2.06)

Win probability 1X2

Oberhausen (H) 37.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 26.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Mgladbach B (A) 36.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Oberhausen face Mgladbach B on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oberhausen a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Mgladbach B 36%, so Oberhausen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Oberhausen and 1.5 for Mgladbach B (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oberhausen are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 2.06 for Mgladbach B. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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