Today / Fortuna Koln vs S. Siegen

Fortuna Koln vs S. Siegen Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Fortuna Koln

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

S. Siegen

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.1%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-110.1%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-16.5%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.1%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 23.7% — — —

Over 2.5 59.3% — — —

Over 3.5 36.1% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortuna Koln2.0

S. Siegen1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTUNA KOLN · PPG 2.25

S. SIEGEN · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Fortuna Koln (H) 50.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

S. Siegen (A) 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortuna Koln face S. Siegen on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortuna Koln a 50% chance, the draw 26% and S. Siegen 24%, so Fortuna Koln are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Fortuna Koln and 1.1 for S. Siegen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortuna Koln are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.56 for S. Siegen. This match finished 2-1.

Fortuna Koln vs S. Siegen Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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