Today / Osnabruck vs Ulm

Osnabruck vs Ulm Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Osnabruck

PPG 2.06 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ulm

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.4%1-18.1%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.3%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-17.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 17.8% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 37.6% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 59% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1✓ 8.1%

#4 3–0 9.4%

#5 1–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osnabruck2.3

Ulm0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OSNABRUCK · PPG 2.06

ULM · PPG 0.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=59.4%

Win probability 1X2

Osnabruck (H) 59.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ulm (A) 17.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Osnabruck face Ulm on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osnabruck a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Ulm 18%, so Osnabruck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Osnabruck and 0.8 for Ulm (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osnabruck are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.72 for Ulm. This match finished 1-1.

Osnabruck vs Ulm Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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