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Goa vs Mohun Bagan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:30

Goa

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Mohun Bagan

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.1%0-117.7%0-28.7%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-013.2%1-112.9%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-04.8%2-14.7%2-22.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.2%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% — — —

Draw 35.6% — — —

Away win 37.0% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 9.5% — — —

BTTS 45.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.9%

D 36% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.1%

#2 0–1 17.7%

#3 1–1✓ 12.9%

#4 1–0 13.2%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goa0.7

Mohun Bagan1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 9.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GOA · PPG 2.00

MOHUN BAGAN · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Goa (H) 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mohun Bagan (A) 37.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Goa face Mohun Bagan in India - Indian Super League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goa a 27% chance, the draw 36% and Mohun Bagan 37%, so Mohun Bagan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Goa and 1.0 for Mohun Bagan (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goa are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Mohun Bagan. This match finished 1-1.

Goa vs Mohun Bagan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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