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Weiche F. vs Norderstedt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:30

Weiche F.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Norderstedt

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.6%0-21.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-02.7%1-14.6%1-24.0%1-32.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.0%2-16.9%2-26.0%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.9%3-16.8%3-26.0%3-33.5%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-110.6%4+-29.2%4+-35.4%4+-4+3.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 26.2% — — —

Over 2.5 73.3% — — —

Over 3.5 69.3% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob66.7%

H 52% / xG 3.0-1.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.9%

#2 3–1 6.8%

#3 2–2✓ 6.0%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weiche F.3.0

Norderstedt1.7

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 69.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WEICHE F. · PPG 1.50

NORDERSTEDT · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Weiche F. (H) 51.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Norderstedt (A) 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Weiche F. face Norderstedt in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weiche F. a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Norderstedt 26%, so Weiche F. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Weiche F. and 1.7 for Norderstedt (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weiche F. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Norderstedt. This match finished 2-2.

Weiche F. vs Norderstedt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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