Today / Levadia vs Harju JK

Levadia vs Harju JK Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Levadia

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Harju JK

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.8%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.3%1-15.4%1-22.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.4%2-18.2%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.4%3-18.2%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-014.9%4+-112.9%4+-25.6%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.9% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 9.4% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 54.0% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 68% / xG 3.0-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0✓ 9.4%

#2 2–0 9.4%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levadia3.0

Harju JK0.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVADIA · PPG 2.33

HARJU JK · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Levadia (H) 67.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Harju JK (A) 9.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Levadia face Harju JK on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levadia a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Harju JK 9%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Levadia and 0.9 for Harju JK (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levadia are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.80 for Harju JK. This match finished 3-0.

Levadia vs Harju JK Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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