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Jiangxi Lushan vs Wenzhou Pro. Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Jiangxi Lushan

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Wenzhou Pro.

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.2%0-111.7%0-22.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.6%1-110.9%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.6%2-15.1%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.3%3-11.6%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% — — —

Draw 38.4% — — —

Away win 21.0% — — —

Over 2.5 25.8% — — —

Over 3.5 5.6% — — —

BTTS 41.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.8%

H 41% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.2%

#2 1–0 22.6%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 11.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jiangxi Lushan0.9

Wenzhou Pro.0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JIANGXI LUSHAN · PPG 1.33

WENZHOU PRO. · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Jiangxi Lushan (H) 40.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 38.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Wenzhou Pro. (A) 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jiangxi Lushan face Wenzhou Pro. on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jiangxi Lushan a 41% chance, the draw 38% and Wenzhou Pro. 21%, so Jiangxi Lushan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Jiangxi Lushan and 0.5 for Wenzhou Pro. (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jiangxi Lushan are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.75 for Wenzhou Pro.. This match finished 3-1.

Jiangxi Lushan vs Wenzhou Pro. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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