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Nanjing City vs Meizhou Hakka Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:30

Nanjing City

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Meizhou Hakka

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-18.8%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-111.6%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-17.7%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.4%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 22.0% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 12.9% — — —

BTTS 45.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.4%

#2 0–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0✓ 12.8%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nanjing City1.3

Meizhou Hakka0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NANJING CITY · PPG 1.75

MEIZHOU HAKKA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Nanjing City (H) 49.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Meizhou Hakka (A) 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nanjing City face Meizhou Hakka in China - League One on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nanjing City a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Meizhou Hakka 22%, so Nanjing City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nanjing City and 0.6 for Meizhou Hakka (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nanjing City are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Meizhou Hakka. This match finished 2-0.

Nanjing City vs Meizhou Hakka Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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