Today / Dingnan vs Changchun Yatai

Dingnan vs Changchun Yatai Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Dingnan

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Changchun Yatai

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-18.6%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.4%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.3%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 24.8% — — —

Over 2.5 46.4% — — —

Over 3.5 20.4% — — —

BTTS 51.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.3%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dingnan1.4

Changchun Yatai0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DINGNAN · PPG 1.50

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Dingnan (H) 48.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Changchun Yatai (A) 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dingnan face Changchun Yatai on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dingnan a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Changchun Yatai 25%, so Dingnan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dingnan and 0.9 for Changchun Yatai (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dingnan are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Changchun Yatai. This match finished 2-3.

Dingnan vs Changchun Yatai Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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