Today / Tokat vs Duzcespor

Tokat vs Duzcespor Prediction

Group 3 - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:00

Tokat

PPG 1.21 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Duzcespor

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.21) > Away POOR (0.64)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-19.0%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.6%1-112.3%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-18.4%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.2%3-13.8%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% — — —

Draw 27.9% — — —

Away win 20.3% — — —

Over 2.5 35.2% — — —

Over 3.5 16.3% — — —

BTTS 39.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob39.0%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 2–0✓ 11.4%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tokat1.4

Duzcespor0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TOKAT · PPG 1.21

DUZCESPOR · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.21) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Tokat (H) 51.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Duzcespor (A) 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tokat face Duzcespor on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tokat a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Duzcespor 20%, so Tokat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Tokat and 0.7 for Duzcespor (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tokat are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.64 for Duzcespor. This match finished 2-0.

Tokat vs Duzcespor Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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